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It's not only about the guns, though. If the black market increases because of a recent gun ban, so do everything else in the black market do so.
Gun control laws have arguably caused gun violence incidents to reduce around the world, but alternative weapons could still be used to commit a crime. Knife attacks, vehicle attacks, and homemade explosives can technically do just as much damage as a gun can, and in some cases, they could even deal more damage, when put into the right hands.
For example, recently, in New York, a terrorist drove a truck at full speed over a bike path, leaving lots of people dead and many people injured.
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If someone wants to own a gun, they’re going to own one. That is a pretty basic principle that applies to legal and illegal gun owners. Gun control legislation attempts to create more safety by creating more loops for legal owners to jump through to own a firearm. There will always be people who steal firearms or alter information on background checks to circumvent laws. Gun control legislation would likely increase the black market in countries for ownership for those who simply want a self-defense option, or for those who still brutally want to cause a shooting.
Fewer guns won't change the behavior of people. Gun control laws have arguably caused gun violence incidents to reduce around the world, but alternative weapons could still be used to commit crime. Knife attacks, vehicle attacks, and homemade explosives can technically do just as much damage as a gun can, and in some cases, they could even deal more damage, when put into the right hands.